Raba Kifi da Rikicin Kasafin Kuɗi na Tarayya: Nazarin Kasafin Kuɗi na Gudanar da Kifi na Amurka

Bayyani Gabaɗaya

Wannan rahoto yana binciken tasirin kasafin kuɗi ga gwamnatin tarayyar Amurka na sauya hanyoyin gudanar da kifi na kasuwanci daga tsarin gudanarwa na gargajiya zuwa rabon kifi (wanda kuma ake kira Individual Fishing Quotas ko Limited Access Privilege Programs). Babban tambaya shine ko rabon kifi yana wakiltar ingantaccen saka hannun jari na jama'a ta hanyar ƙididdige tasirin da zai iya yi akan gibin kasafin kuɗin tarayya ta amfani da Nazarin Ƙimar Net Present Value (NPV).

Tasirin NPV na Nazarin Lamura

~$165M

Kiyasin raguwar gibin kasafin kuɗin tarayya daga sauya hanyoyin kifin da aka bincika.

Hasashen Girma

$890M - $1.24B

Yuwuwar raguwar gibin kasafin kuɗi ta NPV idan 36 daga cikin hanyoyin kifi 44 na tarayya sun karɓi rabon kifi.

Babban Abubuwan Da Suka Haifar da Kasafin Kuɗi

1. Ƙaruwar Ribar Masunta & Kudaden Haraji
2. Maido da Kuɗin Gudanarwa daga Mahalarta

1. Gabatarwa

Gudanar da rabon kifi yana ba da gata ga ɗaiɗaiku ko ƙungiyoyi don tara wani yanki na Jimillar Kifi da Kimiyya ta Ƙaddara (TAC) na wani hanyar kifi. Duk da yake ana haɓaka shi don dorewar muhalli da tattalin arziki—rage yawan kifi da ƙara kuɗin shiga kowane jirgin ruwa—tasirin kai tsaye akan kuɗaɗen gwamnati ba a bincika shi sosai ba. Wannan takarda ta cike wannan gibi, tana nazarin tasirin kasafin kuɗi a cikin yanayin ƙoƙarin rage gibin kasafin kuɗi.

Mahimmin Mahallin: Sauya hanyar sau da yawa ya haɗa da sauye-sauyen tattalin arziki, gami da yuwuwar haɗa ayyukan yi da sauye-sauyen saukar kaya a tashar jiragen ruwa, wanda ke haifar da nasara da asara a wurare daban-daban (Branch, 2008; Costello et al., 2008).

2. Hanyar Bincike

Binciken ya yi amfani da nazarin kwatancen abin da zai iya faruwa, yana kimanta hanyoyin kifi a ƙarƙashin duka yanayin gudanar da rabon kifi da na gargajiya.

2.1 Nazarin Ƙimar Net Present Value (NPV)

Ana ƙididdige babban tasirin kasafin kuɗi a matsayin bambanci a cikin matsayin kasafin kuɗi na tarayya tsakanin tsarin gudanarwa biyu, wanda aka rage ƙimar su zuwa ƙimar yanzu.

2.2 Tsarin Kwatance

Ga kowane hanyar kifi, nazarin ya gina yanayi biyu masu kama da juna: ɗayan yana ɗaukan gudanar da rabon kifi ɗayan kuma yana ɗaukan gudanarwa na gargajiya (ta amfani da kayan aiki kamar iyakancewar shiga, sarrafa ƙoƙari, da TACs), ba tare da la'akari da ainihin yanayin hanyar kifi na yanzu ba.

3. Babban Bincike & Sakamako

3.1 Nazarin Nazarin Lamura

Nazarin hanyoyin kifi guda biyu da ke da rabon kifi da hanyoyin kifi guda biyu da ake gudanar da su bisa al'ada ya kiyasta yuwuwar raguwar gibin kasafin kuɗin tarayya gabaɗaya na kusan $165 miliyan a cikin NPV bayan sauya su zuwa rabon kifi.

3.2 Abubuwan Da Suka Haifar da Tasirin Kasafin Kuɗi

Ragewar gibin kasafin kuɗi ya samo asali ne daga hanyoyi biyu na asali:

Ƙaruwar Kudaden Haraji: Rabon kifi yakan ƙara ribar masunta (ta hanyar samun ingantacciyar aiki da kwanciyar hankali na haƙƙin kama kifi), wanda ke haifar da ƙarin biyan haraji na sirri da na kamfani ga gwamnatin tarayya.
Maido da Kuɗi: A ƙarƙashin Dokar Magnuson-Stevens, an ba da umarnin shirye-shiryen rabon kifi don maido da kuɗaɗen gudanarwa daga mahalarta, wanda ke rage kashe kuɗaɗen gudanarwa na tarayya idan aka kwatanta da hanyoyin kifin da ake gudanar da su bisa al'ada.

3.3 Hasashen Girma

Dangane da nazarin lamura, binciken ya nuna cewa idan 36 daga cikin hanyoyin kifi 44 na tarayyar Amurka sun karɓi rabon kifi, gibin kasafin kuɗin tarayya zai iya ragu da kusan $890 miliyan zuwa $1.24 biliyan a cikin NPV. Wannan hasashen ya nuna babban yuwuwar girman sauyin manufar.

4. Tsarin Fasaha & Nazari

4.1 Ƙirar Lissafi

Babban lissafi don ƙididdige tasirin kai tsaye akan gibin kasafin kuɗin tarayya ga hanyar kifi ɗaya shine:

$\Delta \text{Deficit} = (R_{cs} - C_{cs}) - (R_{tm} - C_{tm})$

Inda:

$R_{cs}$, $C_{cs}$: Kudaden Shiga da Kuɗaɗen Tarayya a ƙarƙashin Rabon Kifi.
$R_{tm}$, $C_{tm}$: Kudaden Shiga da Kuɗaɗen Tarayya a ƙarƙashin Gudanarwa na Gargajiya.

Ana tattara wannan tasirin kowane hanyar kifi sannan a rage ƙimar su zuwa Ƙimar Net Present Value:

$\text{NPV Impact} = \sum_{t=0}^{T} \frac{\Delta \text{Deficit}_t}{(1 + r)^t}$

inda $r$ shine ƙimar rangwame kuma $T$ shine lokacin nazari.

4.2 Misalin Tsarin Nazari

Yanayi: Kimanta sauyin da zai yiwu na "Hanyar Kifi ta Arewacin Atlantika A."

Tushe (Gudanarwa na Gargajiya): Kiyasta kuɗin shiga na haraji na shekara-shekara na tarayya daga ribar rundunar jiragen ruwa = $5M. Kuɗin gudanarwa na shekara-shekara na tarayya = $3M. Matsayin tarayya na shekara-shekara = +$2M.
Shiga Tsakani (Rabon Kifi): Hasashen ƙaruwar riba na 20% ya haɓaka kuɗin shiga na haraji zuwa $6M. Maido da kuɗi na 50% ya rage kuɗin gudanarwa na tarayya zuwa $1.5M. Matsayin tarayya na shekara-shekara = +$4.5M.
Tasirin Shekara-shekara: $\Delta = +$4.5M - +$2M = +$2.5M inganci kowace shekara.
Lissafin NPV: Rage wannan tsarin $2.5M na shekara-shekara sama da shekaru 20 a ƙimar rangwame na 3% don samun gudunmawar hanyar kifi ga jimillar tasirin NPV.

Wannan misalin da aka sauƙaƙa ya kwatanta tsarin ƙira na tushen abubuwan da suka haifar da tasirin da aka yi amfani da shi a cikin binciken.

5. Bita Mai Mahimmanci na Manazarta

Babban Fahimta

Wannan takarda ba game da kifi kawai ba ce; ta zama ingantaccen sake fasalin manufofin muhalli a matsayin tsuke bakin aljihu. Marubutan sun gano ingantacciyar manufar siyasa: ba kawai a sanya rabon kifi a matsayin kayan aikin muhalli ba amma a matsayin kayan aikin rage gibin kasafin kuɗi. A cikin zamanin masu tsaron kasafin kuɗi, wannan yana canza muhawarar daga "ƙa'idodin muhalli masu tsada" zuwa "saka hannun jari mai riba na gwamnati". Hasashen tasirin NPV na sama da $1B shine taken da aka tsara don jawo hankali a cikin kwamitocin ba da kuɗi na Majalisa fiye da yadda ma'aunin farfadowar hannun jari zai iya yi.

Tsarin Ma'ana

Hujjar tana da kyau a fannin tattalin arziki amma ta dogara ne akan sarkar dalilai mai mahimmanci: Rabon Kifi → Ƙaruwar Riba → Ƙaruwar Kudaden Haraji. An goyi bayan mahaɗin farko sosai ta wallafe-wallafe (misali, Costello, Gaines, & Lynham, 2008, a cikin Kimiyya, sun nuna cewa ITQs suna dakatar da kuma ma juyar da rugujewar hanyoyin kifi). Duk da haka, fassara zuwa karɓar haraji na tarayya ba a san ta ba. Binciken ya ɗauka cewa ribar riba kai tsaye kuma cikakke tana fassara zuwa kuɗin shiga na kamfani ko na sirri mai haraji, yana yin watsi da yuwuwar tsara haraji, sake saka hannun jari, ko tsarin ƙungiyoyin wucewa da aka saba yi a cikin kamun kifi. Zato ne na tattalin arzikin ƙasa da aka yi amfani da shi a fannin tattalin arzikin microeconomic.

Ƙarfi & Kurakurai

Ƙarfi: Aiwatar da daidaitaccen hanyar NPV na kuɗi ga manufofin jama'a babban ƙarfi ne, yana ba da harshe gama gari ga masana tattalin arziki da masu tsara manufofi. Tsarin abin da zai iya faruwa yana da inganci. Gano maido da kuɗi a matsayin abin da ke haifar da kasafin kuɗi kai tsaye yana da kaifi kuma sau da yawa ana yin watsi da shi.

Kurakurai Masu Bayyane: Giwa a cikin daki shine tasirin rarraba. Takarda ta ɗan yi ishara da "ƙarancin ayyukan cikakken lokaci" da sauye-sauyen tashar jiragen ruwa amma gaba ɗaya ta raba waɗannan farashin zamantakewa daga lissafin kasafin kuɗi. Idan haɗawa ya haifar da rashin aikin yi na yanki, ƙarin kuɗaɗen tarayya don tallafin rashin aikin yi ko tallafin daidaita al'umma zai iya soke ribar da aka yi hasashen—wani misali na al'ada na inganta tsarin ƙaramin tsarin (kasafin kuɗin tarayya) yayin da yake cutar da tsarin da ya fi girma. Aikin McCay et al. (1995) kan tasirin zamantakewa na tsarin ƙididdiga ba a ƙididdige shi sosai a nan. Bugu da ƙari, hasashen girma jarumi ne, yana ɗaukan layi inda babu wanda zai iya wanzuwa.

Fahimta Mai Aiki

1. Ga Masu Tsara Manufofi: Yi amfani da wannan binciken a matsayin farkon gaskiya nazarin fa'ida da farashi wanda ya haɗa da abubuwan da suka shafi zamantakewa. Ya kamata shirye-shiryen gwaji su ba da umarnin sa ido mai ƙarfi na zamantakewa da tattalin arziki tare da bin diddigin kasafin kuɗi.
2. Ga Masu Ba da Shawara: Wannan tsarin kasafin kuɗi yana da ƙarfi. Haɗa shi da nazarin lamura da ke nuna yadda ribar da ake samu a ƙarƙashin rabon kifi zai iya ba da kuɗi ga asusun juriya na al'umma ko sayar da ƙarin ƙididdiga don rage damuwa na daidaito, kamar yadda aka bincika a cikin juyin halittar gudanar da kifi na New Zealand.
3. Ga Masu Bincike: Mataki na gaba mai mahimmanci shine ƙirar da ke da ƙarfi, mai ban mamaki. Haɗa sauyin yanayi a cikin tarin kifi (wanda canjin yanayi ya shafa, kamar yadda aka lura a cikin rahotannin NOAA na baya-bayan nan) da farashin man fetur. NPV na yanzu shine ƙiyasin batu; muna buƙatar rarraba yuwuwar sakamako. Bi tsananin ƙira da aka gani a cikin tattalin arzikin yanayi (misali, ƙirar kimanta haɗin kai).

A ƙarshe, wannan takarda tana ba da tabarma mai mahimmanci da wayo ta fuskar kasafin kuɗi amma tana da haɗarin gabatar da ruɗi na fasaha. Ƙalubalen gaske ba shine tabbatar da lissafin kasafin kuɗi ba—yana gudanar da sauyi don tabbatar da cewa "ceton" $1B ba a cire shi daga tsarin zamantakewa na al'ummomin bakin teku ba.

6. Aikace-aikace & Jagorori na Gaba

Haɗawa da Kudaden Juriyar Canjin Yanayi: Ƙirar gaba na iya haɗa ƙarin kudaden shiga masu kwanciyar hankali daga rabon kifi zuwa saka hannun jari a cikin kayan kamun kifi masu dacewa da yanayi da maidafar mazauni, ƙirƙirar zagaye mai kyau na lafiyar kasafin kuɗi da muhalli.
Blockchain don Bin Didigin Ƙididdiga & Maido da Kuɗi: Aiwayar tsarin rajista maras canzawa, mai gaskiya (wanda aka yi wahayi daga aikace-aikacen sarkar samarwa kamar IBM Food Trust) zai iya rage kuɗaɗen gudanarwa na sa ido da aiwatar da rabon kifi sosai, yana haɓaka fa'idar kasafin kuɗi da aka gano a cikin wannan binciken.
Gudanar da Sararin Samaniya Mai Ƙarfi: Haɗa rabon kifi tare da bayanan teku na ainihin lokaci (kama da kayan aikin OceanAdapt database) zai iya ba da damar daidaita ƙididdiga mai ƙarfi, yana iya ƙara yawan amfanin gona gabaɗaya da tushe na haraji yayin kare tsarin muhalli masu mahimmanci.
Lamuni na Tasirin Zamantakewa: Ana iya amfani da ceton kuɗin tarayya da aka yi hasashen don tsara "Lamuni na Tasirin Zamantakewa" inda masu saka hannun jari na sirri suka fara ba da jari don sauya hanyoyin kifi masu wahala zuwa rabon kifi, gwamnati ta biya su daga wani yanki na ceton kasafin kuɗi na gaba, daidaita haɗari da lada.

7. Nassoshi

Branch, T. A. (2008). How do individual transferable quotas affect marine ecosystems? Fish and Fisheries.
Costello, C., Gaines, S. D., & Lynham, J. (2008). Can Catch Shares Prevent Fisheries Collapse? Science, 321(5896), 1678–1681.
Essington, T. E. (2010). Ecological indicators display reduced variation in North American catch share fisheries. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). (2010). Catch Share Policy.
McCay, B. J., Creed, C. F., Finlayson, A. C., Apostle, R., & Mikalson, K. (1995). Individual Transferable Quotas (ITQs) in Canadian and US Fisheries. Ocean & Coastal Management.
Zhu, J., Park, T., Isola, P., & Efros, A. A. (2017). Unpaired Image-to-Image Translation using Cycle-Consistent Adversarial Networks. Proceedings of the IEEE International Conference on Computer Vision (ICCV). (An ambata a matsayin misali na ingantaccen tsarin ƙira na abin da zai iya faruwa a wani yanki daban).
World Bank. (2017). The Sunken Billions Revisited: Progress and Challenges in Global Marine Fisheries. (Don ƙarin mahallin tattalin arzikin kifi na duniya).